A The Impact of Mining Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Variables on Sharia Compliant Coal Stocks Returns: Evidence from Indonesia (2018–2022)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of mining commodity prices and macroeconomic variables on sharia-compliant coal stock returns in Indonesia from 2018 to 2022. Using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the analysis covers short- and long-term effects of coal, oil, natural gas, and gold prices, along with inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates. The sample includes nine sharia-compliant coal companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The results show no significant short-term effects, while in the long-term coal, natural gas, gold, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates significantly influence returns, but oil prices do not. The findings highlight the role of commodity and macroeconomic dynamics in shaping Islamic investment performance.